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The Arrogance Cycle

I wanted to share a book I enjoyed recently called The Arrogance Cycle by Michael K Farr. It gives a detailed, comedic, and inside look at the emotions, entitlements, arrogance, and detached reality some investors have (both on Wall Street and Main Street). For anyone who enjoyed Michael Lewis’s Liar’s Poker you will enjoy The Arrogance Cycle.

In the context of our current recession, it is an amazing book, which reflects on the causes of surges and bursts, and analyzes the psychology and fundamentals of human behavior.

A great passage from Farr’s book:

“Optimism is a magnet. Who among us would not like to believe that tomorrow will be better than today – that we have the potential to be richer, more powerful, happier, and more content? It’s written into the human DNA. Unfortunately, the ingredients of optimism are too often the same ingredients that go into arrogance, and they’re largely driven by the subtleties of hope and a desire for certainty”

Wisdom like the above should help savy investors avoid the next inevitable surge and burst in the market. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!

Michael K Farr is the president of Farr, Miller & Washington, LLC and a guest commentator for CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and Reuters. Michael previously wrote the book A Million is Not Enough: How to Retire with the Money You’ll Need.

For anyone interested in learning more about how money can affect someone’s thoughts and emotions, check out the video entitled “Mind over Money” I posted here.

Steve Jobs – 60 Minutes Profile

If you missed it previously, below I have posted the 60 Minutes Piece on Jobs.

Sean Parker Bio (Napster/Facebook)

Sean Parker (better known as the guy Justin Timberlake played in film The Social Network!) was profiled on the cover of Forbes recently. Despite looking like a jacka$$ in the film, the real Parker is a serial entrepreneur with immense accomplishments. Really interesting article, and the guy is only 31 years old. Article located HERE.

Interesting Interview on Parker below, where he describes his rise:

Fortune’s New 40 Under 40 List

Fortune Magazine has just published the New 40 Under 40 List. The usual suspects are on here including Zuckerberg and Larry Page but it is interesting to note Greg Jensen and John Arnold (who I profiled earlier). Short Bio on Each winner. Link is HERE, or click Hyperlinked text above.

The Giving Rockefellers

Great documentary from History Channel! Most people know Rockefeller as the billionaire owner of Standard Oil and as Jay-Z’s rap label. However this video below uncovers Rockefeller’s personal relationships (like his shady father better known as “Devil” Bill), deeply religious background, and other interesting facts.

The documentary details Rockefeller’s:
-Exceptional business methods
-Strategies employed to control 90% of the world’s oil refining by age 40.
-Previous employment/skills as a bookkeeper (16yo) and meat commodities trader (18yo)
-Family History, and creation of The Rockefeller Center

From being the most hated man in the country, to his son(Jr.) redeeming the family name, and Nelson’s rise/fall in politics, this doc has it all.

John D. Rockefeller is considered the wealthiest man in history (considering inflation) and thus this video is worth the 2 hour investment. He also had a pretty amazing mustache at one time! Enjoy.

Stocks Plummeting: Great News!!!

“Be Greedy when others are Fearful” -Warren Buffett-

To anyone interested in taking advantage of the AA+ rating by purchasing undervalued stocks, which are plummeting due to the emotional sell off caused by the downgrade, I have listed a few stocks I believe are worth purchasing and why I believe so.

WELLS FARGO BANK (WFC)

Simply put, the EPS is high (2.57), and it is currently listed at a price of $23.84. Warren Buffett added to his holdings of this stock a while back by 5% and his purchase prices were between $23.25 and $28.57, with an estimated average price of $26.11. The stock is currently priced well below $26.11, and it will probably fall even more this week (making it a better bargain). This line of thinking has served me well, as I bought GE at $9/share after reading that Buffett bought $3 Billion worth of GE at around $12/share back in 2008.

AFLAC (AFL)

Aflac gets 70-75% of its earnings from Japan, and thus the company has taken a hit having to pay out claims engendered by the Tsunami. With the US’s AA+ rating, the company has taken another big hit so the stock price has collapsed (Japan also owns most of our debt after China). Due to it’s size,high EPS (3.81), extremely cash rich business, and niched supplemental products, I have no doubt this stock will prevail after the intense losses it’s suffering due to claims paid out due to the Tsunami. Aflac also is considered the number one brand in the health insurance field. Hopefully this stock continues to fall thanks to the AA+, making it an even more appealing purchase. Did I mention I am a fan of their commercials!??

BRITISH PETROLEUM (BP)

Similar to AFLAC, BP’s stock took a hit due a specific and highly publicized event. The DeepWater Horizon oil spill left the American public with a negative outlook on BP, and BP has to pay huge sums for Gulf Restoration. However, after looking at the numbers (EPS of 6.32) BP will no doubt remain solvent, and prevail after this setback. The AA+ rating has further beat down this stock price, which is currently listed at $38.41.

Please email me at TheRisetoWealth (at) gmail.com if have spotted any other stocks that you think are currently undervalued and worth considering.

CM

Who will be the next Warren Buffett?

With stocks plummeting due to the AA+ rating, there are a lot of tasty cheap stocks out there. I am personally tracking WFC, BP, AFL and to a lesser extent ECA and JMBA. With many undervalued stocks, I wanted to see which investors (including Buffett) would be most likely to capitalize on this current market fluctuation and maximize gains. Below is a great article featured today in the San Francisco Chronicle which lists “Who will be the Next Warren Buffett?” and includes a brief biography on each fund manager.

“Who will be the Next Warren Buffett?”

Interplanetary Entrepreneur: Elon Musk

With the New York Times reporting the breaking news that NASA may have found sources of liquid water on Mars, I wanted to highlight serial entrepreneur and Space X CEO Elon Musk (the real life Tony Stark) who wants “Man to be a Multi-Planet Species”. For anyone who has not heard of Musk and his amazing achievements check the video below.

Elon Musk Wants Man to Be a Multi-Planet Species

Water on Mars from New York Times